Use of atomic energy for support of the national economy needs and stable functioning of nuclear energy is a premise of support of appropriate level of energy security and sustainable development of Ukraine. And one of the major factors influencing development of any reactor technology is the economy. It is caused by the fact that design, construction and maintenance of the nuclear power stations (NPS) is initially connected to high capital costs. The main price loading is born: the casing of the reactor, the steam generator, pipeline trunks, etc. which are manufactured of the radiation-hardened steels and alloys.
In view of the absence in Ukraine of its own infrastructure for the production of industrial nuclear reactors, " The Strategy for the development of nuclear power in Ukraine until 2030", and also in the Draft Strategy until 2035, it is suggested that when expanding of the new nuclear reactors park in Ukraine to be guided by the foreign market. Despite a large number of offers by foreign manufacturers of these products and the limited financial resources currently available in Ukraine, the priority is the technical and economic valuation of proposals not only at the time of consideration of the proposal, but also for the predicted period of the reactor facility building.
The material-prediction approach to the economically justified of choice of case materials and steam generators of the newest high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGR) generation IV has been developed further, proceeding from the components cost prediction which are a part of the steels of their structural elements.
The information technology of the economic justification of the materials choice for casing and steam generators of the HTGR generation IV is created. It consists of a steps sequence which provide combining in a technological chain application of methods, models, algorithms, software, hardware and allow the collection, storage, analytical processing (data preparation, development of prediction models, forecast with risk assessment), an output of technical and economic information (predictive estimates of the materials cost of structural elements of the HTGR generation IV), for the purpose of increase in accuracy of decisions taken in case of materials choice in the long term.
An information system for decision support for the choice of HTGR generation IV materials on the basis of integration of weighted expert assessments and data on the radiation and corrosion resistance of materials obtained in imitation and radiation tests, with the predictive cost values of materials and components obtained by statistically justifying the extrapolation of non-stationary time series with prediction risk assessment is developed.
The material-prediction approach approved on the task decision of a materials choice of the casing and steam generators HTGR generation IV based on cost indexes prediction of the initial raw materials for 2020-2030 (see Fig. 1 - 3).
Figure 1 - Cost and predictive cost estimates of steel components for 2020 - 2030 in US dollars per metric ton in comparable prices of 2015
Figure 2 - Cost and predictive cost estimates of steel for 2020 - 2030 in US dollars per metric ton in comparable prices of 2015
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Based on the results of the forecast (forecast error 12.94%, which is 12% better than the traditional approach, the forecast risk is 14.5%), a comparative analysis of the initial components cost showed that when choosing a new HTGR generation IV reactor for Ukraine for the forecast period 2020 -2030 the most promising, by the cost indexes, is the HTGR generation IV made from steel A 336 Grade F22 Class 1 (GT-MHR) and steam generator of HTGR generation IV, made from steel SB 168 (ANTARES).